AL vs NL: Which Team is Better?
- Lou Orlando
- Jul 10, 2021
- 6 min read
The All-Star teams have been finalized. Which squad is better?
It's almost time for the annual battle between the American League and the National League. Amidst the voting process, All-Star snubs, and the very popular Home Run Derby, it sometimes gets forgotten that there's an actual game to be played. And while the game itself can sometimes be the least entertaining part of the All-Star festivities, it's still worth looking at both sides and seeing which league has the advantage.
We'll break it down position by position before taking a broader look at both teams.
Catcher: Salvador Perez (AL) vs Buster Posey (NL)
Advantage: Buster Posey
Posey won't play due to injury but for the sake of this article, he's still the Starting NL Catcher. Posey has a clear path to the Hall of Fame as a former MVP and 6x All-Star, but many suspected his best years could be behind him. After a mediocre 2018 and a straight-up bad 2019 that saw his OPS+ fall below 100, Posey sat out 2020 for precautionary health reasons. It had been 3 years since we'd seen Posey play at the elite level we were used to. 2021 has changed the narrative. Posey is seemingly back and better than ever. His .970 OPS, 166 wRC+, and .419 OBP lead all catchers and his .328 batting average makes him the only catcher hitting above .300. Salvy Perez is putting together a nice season but his OPS and wRC+ are only 7th and 8th respectively. His 20 home runs are the most amongst catchers but Posey has far and away been the better offensive player all year.
First Base: Vlad Guerrero Jr (AL) vs Freddie Freeman (NL)
Advantage: Vlad Guerrero Jr
Fans calling All-Star games a popularity contest is an accusation you hear every year. It just so happens that in this case, it might be accurate. Freeman, last year's NL MVP, has been voted as the starting NL first baseman despite the fact he's having one of the worst seasons of his career. Not that it matters because Vlad is one of the best players in the MLB right now, regardless of position. Guerrero leads the MLB in OPS and wRC+ and he's Top 3 in virtually every offensive category across both leagues. When it's all said and done, Vlad should do very nicely when they vote for the AL MVP. Let's just put it this way. There's a reason he received the most All-Star votes this year. He's been that good.
Second Base: Marcus Semien (AL) vs Adam Frazier (NL)
Advantage: Adam Frazier
This one's actually closer than you might expect. Frazier's game is being a contact hitter at the sacrifice of some power. His batting average is 40 points higher than Semien's and he has a 50 point edge on Semien's OBP. Semien's power numbers have been consistently better, but it's Frazier that possesses a 2 point edge in the OPS+ column. He also only trails Semien's OPS by 9 points. Semien dominates the RBI column and out-homers Frazier 21-4 but here's the final shocker. Frazier has a 138 wRC+ while Semien sits at 134. Frazier gets the edge here for his high on-base rate and his slightly superior run-producing numbers.
Short Stop: Xander Bogaerts (AL) vs Fernando Tatis Jr (NL)
Advantage: Fernando Tatis Jr
Xander is a great SS having a terrific year, but Tatis is having an MVP caliber season. Tatis' 1.049 OPS and 174 wRC+ are 1st in the NL and 3rd in the bigs, below Vlad and Shohei. Tatis has legitimately been the best hitter in the National League and as of now, his only competition for NL MVP is the god himself Jacob DeGrom. Xander has an edge in batting average and OBP, but the rest of his numbers aren't in the same realm as Tatis.
Third Base: Rafael Devers (AL) vs Nolan Arenado (NL) Advantage: Rafael Devers
Nolan has a significant defensive edge, but this is an All-Star game. Devers leads all third basemen in OPS and Slugging and his wRC+ sits at 2nd best in baseball. Offensively, Arenado has been mediocre at best and this time his defense won't save him. His 2.8 WAR is largely due to his amazing defense, and even that pales in comparison to Dever's 3.5 WAR.
Outfield: Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez and Cedric Mullins(?) (AL) vs Ronald Acuna Jr, Nick Castellanos, and Jesse Winker (NL)
Advantage: Acuna Jr, Castellanos, and Winker
The AL has yet to name their 3rd starting outfielder after fans voted for the injured Mike Trout. It should go to Cedric Mullins but we'll leave a little question mark there until it's officially confirmed. Regardless, the NL takes this one easily. The way Castellanos and Winker have hit, this might be one of the best All-Star game outfield trios in recent memory. Acuna, Castellanos, and Winker are all Top 10 in MLB OPS. For our AL outfield, only Mullins has a Top 10 OPS and he's below every member of the NL trio. Judge's OPS is in the Top 20 while Teoscar isn't even in the Top 50. Judge and Mullins are both having terrific years, but only Mullin's numbers are even competitive with Winker, who is statistically the worst of the NL trio. NL takes this one with ease.
Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani (AL) vs No one cause there's no NL still won't adopt a DH.
Advantage: Shohei because he's fucking awesome.
The NL will use a DH in the All-Star game but it will just be one of their position players. Therefore, I would like to take the time to highlight how awesome Shohei Ohtani is. Ohtani becomes the first player in MLB history to be an All-Star as both a pitcher and a hitter in the same season. His 33 home runs puts him on pace for 61. No player has hit 60 home runs in a season since Bonds and Sosa did it in 2001. Ohtani is also the only qualified batter slugging over .700 right now and he's got 5 more home runs than the next closest guy (Vlad). Oh, and he's pitching pretty well too. Shohei will participate in the All-Star Game and the Home Run Derby so sit back and enjoy his greatness.
Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber, Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Gerrit Cole, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt (AL) vs Jacob DeGrom, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Zach Wheeler, Trevor Rogers, Yu Darvish, German Marquez, Freddy Peralta, Max Scherzer, Taijuan Walker, Walker Buehler (NL)
Advantage: Degrom, Burnes, Woodruff, Gausman, etc
This one's tough, especially because not everyone on the NL's roster will play. As you can see, there are a lot of reserve NL All-Stars that were called upon for various reasons. Jacob DeGrom, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, and Yu Darvish will not be participating in the All-Star game. Even without them, the NL takes this one easily. 10 of the 12 NL starters have an ERA under 3.00 and two (Degrom and Gausman) have an ERA under 2.00. Conversely, only 4 of the AL starters have an ERA under 3.00. Pitching has just been better in the NL this year, and it shows.
Relievers: Matt Barnes, Liam Hendriks, Ryan Pressly, Aroldis Chapman, Gregory Soto (AL) vs Josh Hader, Craig Kimbrel, Mark Melancon, Alex Reyes (NL)
Advantage: Hader, Kimbrel, Melancon, Reyes
Josh Hader and Craig Kimbrel have just about been the best relievers in baseball this season. They possess the 2 lowest reliever ERAs in the MLB, with Kimbrel's 0.57 and Hader's 0.78. Rounding it out, Reyes has a 1.52 and Melancon has a 2.09 while leading the MLB in Saves. The AL relievers really don't have lights out ERAs. Pressly is the only one with an ERA under 2.00. They might be a little stronger with strikeouts, with Chapman, Barnes, and Hendriks in the Top 5 in the AL for K/9. Chapman and Barnes both strikeout over 15 batters per 9 innings but so do Hader and Kimbrel so it balances out. At the end of the day, the utter dominance of Hader and Kimbrel is more than enough to give the NL the edge here.
Overall: AL vs NL
Advantage: NL
Most betting sites are making the NL the favorite and you really can't blame them. The NL has the clear upperhand in pitching. They don't have a singular player better than Vladimir Guerrero or Shohei Ohtani offensively (at least statistically) but I would argue they have a greater offensive depth. No matter what, it looks like this year's Midsummer Classic is shaping up to be a blast. Enjoy the All-Star festivities and everything that comes with it.
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