Fantasy Football: Booms and Busts (PPR)
- Lou Orlando
- Jan 6, 2022
- 8 min read
Updated: Jan 7, 2022
Week 17 was championship weekend for most fantasy football leagues across the nation. With the fantasy season all but over, let's take a look back at the best overperformers (and underperformers) of the year.
Booms
It would be really boring to just list the top performers at each position so let's clarify what a boom means. Here, we're defining a boom as any player whose performance far exceeded his draft ranking.
Cooper Kupp (WR1) - 412.9 points, 25.81 avg
You saw this one coming. Cooper Kupp is having one of the best seasons from a receiver ever. Heading into the newly added 17th game, Kupp is 135 yards shy of breaking the single-season receiving yards record held by Calvin Johnson from his 2012 season (Side-note, Kupp has 70 more fantasy points than Johnson had in his 2012 season thanks to 10 more TDs and 16 more receptions). Kupp has 30 more points than the next closest player and over 80 points more than the next closest receiver. Kupp was taken in the 3rd-5th round in most fantasy leagues and absolutely dominated fantasy this season. He's the biggest boom of them all.
Jonathan Taylor (RB1) - 360.6 points, 22.54 avg
In the MVP conversation alongside Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor emerged as far and away the best runningback of the 2021 season. Draft rankings had Taylor going towards the very end of the first round, with ESPN ranking him as the RB7 and Yahoo even lower at RB9. Putting up almost 50 points more than the next closest running back, Taylor rewarded owners who drafted him at the end of the first round with a top tier fantasy season. Given the premium put on elite fantasy runningbacks, I have no qualms putting Taylor in as a boom despite the fact he was taken in the first round in most leagues.
Deebo Samuel (WR3) - 310 points, 20.67 avg
Deebo Samuel was drafted in the 8th-9th round, initially projected to finish as a WR40. He immediately put up 31.9 points after a 189 yard Week 1 debut and that set the tone for the rest of the year. Fantasy owners reaped the benefits of Samuel's duel threat role in Kyle Shanahan's San Francisco offense. With 1310 receiving yards to pair with 6 receiving TDs and 7 rushing TDs, put up great numbers as both a receiver and a rusher. San Francisco's offense can be a bit of a mess for fantasy owners, but Samuel was a reliable points producer all season long.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR5) - 300 points, 18.75 avg
Ja'Marr's performance in Week 17 allowed him to surpass Justin Jefferson for the second-most receiving yards from a rookie. He'll just need 54 yards to surpass Bill Groman's 1960 record for most all time. Whether or not Chase's rookie records will stand forever remains to be seen but one thing is for certain -- his Week 17 fantasy championship performance, grabbing 11 catches for 266 yards and 3 TDS for a grand total of 55.6 points, will stay in our minds for years to come. Chase's big game obviously was a massive contributor to a lot of fantasy championships but he was rock solid all year. Chase was taken between the 6th and 7th round but the rookie finished 5th in scoring amongst Wide Receivers.
Mark Andrews (TE1) - 284.6 points, 17.79 avg
The tight end position has been extremely top heavy in fantasy for the last few seasons. While Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller have garnered a lot of attention, Andrews has quietly been one of the most productive fantasy tight ends since 2019. Ranked behind Kelce, Kittle, Waller, and even Kyle Pitts, Andrews outproduced all of them, finishing as the TE1 by more than 30 points. Andrews scored over 15 points nine times this season and averaged 25.6 points in the fantasy football playoffs. With fantasy owners gambling on Travis Kelce in the first round, Andrews rewarded owners who waited until the 5th round to grab their starting tight end.
Leonard Fournette (RB5) - 255.6 points, 18.26 avg
The uncertainty of the Tampa Bay backfield had both Fournette and Ronald Jones going in the 7th-8th round. Jones quickly fell out of favor with Head Coach Bruce Arians and Fournette emerged as the clear starting back in a stacked Bucs offense. Getting consistent carries and a significant uptick in receptions out of the backfield (he averaged over 5 receptions per game!) resulted in a surprising Top 5 RB finish for Fournette. Lenny finished just 4 points shy of his 2019 season in Jacksonville, the best season of his career to date.
Hunter Renfrow (WR11) - 242.2 points, 15.14 avg
Renfrow was not on many draft boards to start the year, but he became a very valuable waiver wire pickup. Renfrow can't boast the explosive 30 point performances like many of the other names on this list, but he can kill you with consistency. Playing in all 16 games of the fantasy season (most leagues don't play Week 18), Renfrow finished with less than 10 points just three times. Renfrow was a reception magnet and clear favorite target for Derek Carr in a surprisingly productive Raiders offense. Finishing just outside the Top 10 as the WR11, Renfrow slides into this list because of how productive he was as a player that went undrafted in 99% of 12-man leagues.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB7) - 232.4 points, 15.49 avg
Another player that went undrafted in most leagues, Patterson was the premiere waiver wire pickup in most leagues. The converted WR put his receiving skills to work out of the backfield and was able to steal carries away from projected starter Mike Davis. His season totals get hurt by three duds to end the season (4.3 points, 8.3 points, and 7.2 points in Weeks 15-17) but Patterson was very productive throughout the fantasy regular season. Highlighted by a 3 TD, 34.6 point performance in Week 4, Patterson was extremely valuable at the running back position, particularly for a player that went undrafted in most leagues.
Busts
This is self-explanatory. You drafted them with high expectations and all they did was cause you unnecessary pain and suffering.
Christian McCaffrey (RB37) - 127.5 points, 18.2 avg
McCaffrey was excellent when he was on the field. Hell, he was more than excellent. Despite just 2 TDs the entire season, McCaffrey was able to tally 24+ points in 4 games. The problem is simply that he wasn't on the field. For the second straight year, injuries derailed a promising season for McCaffrey, limiting him to just seven games, two of which he had to depart early due to injury. CMac was the consensus #1 overall pick. That pick comes with massive expectations. McCaffrey unfortunately and through no fault of his own was unable to live up to those expectations.
Saquon Barkley (RB32) - 140.7 points, 11.7 avg
Saquon's stock has fallen a bit since his 384 point rookie campaign, but he was still taken in the middle of the first round in most leagues. Unfortunately, a combination of injuries, the worst offensive line in football, and a utterly pathetic Giants offense were too much for Saquon to handle this season. Barkley missed 4 1/2 games due to an ankle injury that lingered most of the season. Outside of a bright two week stretch in Weeks 3 and 4 where he put up 21.4 and 29.6, Barkley failed to score over 20 points. He surpassed double digit points just six times and despite seeing a good amount of carries, Barkley had only two games with over 100 all-purpose yards. There was always going to be risk with drafting Saquon, but he was really unproductive this season.
Allen Robinson (WR83) - 80.8 points, 7.3 avg
Football is a funny game. Allen Robinson has consistently been a Top 10 Wide Receiver despite never playing with a truly elite quarterback. Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, and Nick Foles are among the quarterbacks that Robinson has managed to thrive with. The 2021 Chicago Bears however...
From entire stadiums in Chicago chanting "FIRE NAGY" to the Andy Dalton-Justin Fields mess, the Bears have not created an easy environment for their receivers to succeed in. That doesn't completely excuse this absolute dud of a season from Robinson. Second year receiver Darnell Mooney is proof that Chicago receivers can still be productive fantasy-wise. Playing in 11 games, Robinson scored over 10 points just twice (10.4 in Week 2 and 10.8 in Week 9 -- way to shatter that ceiling!). Averaging just 3.3 receptions per game, Robinson was a non-factor in an already unimpressive Chicago offense. Taken between the 2nd-3rd round, Robinson was expected to be a reliable WR1 and completely fell on his face. A lot of the players on this list can fall back on injuries or a small sample size but 11 games is more than enough to cement Robinson's 2021 as one of the worst busts of the year.
Julio Jones (WR105) - 63.6 points, 7.1 avg
Julio Jones has been a fantasy stud since his rookie year in 2011. After 10 successful seasons in Atlanta, expectations were high after getting traded to an up-and-coming Tennessee Titans team. Playing in only 9 games, Jones was wildly unproductive. It's not just the missed games that have contributed to this fall-off. In 2013, Jones played just 5 games but put up 109.7 points, averaging 21.9. Last year, he played in 9 games as well but put up 146.1, averaging over 16 a game. This year, Jones averaged just 7.1 points a game. Before this season, he had never averaged below 15.5 points a game. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill didn't have a great season, but Jones scored over double digits just once and was a complete non-factor on a Tennessee team that in all likelihood will be the #1 seed in the AFC.
Calvin Ridley (WR95) - 71.1 points, 14.2 avg
In the grand scheme of things, Calvin Ridley's mental health is far more important than the NFL and our trivial fantasy teams. I'm not going to throw blame Ridley's way for prioritizing his mental health. However, it is an objective statement that Ridley was one of the worst fantasy busts this season. Taken in the second round as one of the Top 5 Wide Receivers, Ridley played just 5 games. He was good when he played, scoring double digits in every single appearance. It's just unfortunate we didn't get to see more of him on the field. Ridley was placed on the non-football injury reserve before Week 8 and he never returned the rest of the season. Here's hoping he can get the help he needs so we can get back to watching one of the best receivers in the game today.
Chris Carson (RB78) - 48.1 points, 12.0 avg
Carson fell victim to an injury that he was never able to recover from. Suffering an injury in Week 4, Carson was slated to return in November but did not respond well to practice and decided to get season-ending neck surgery. Carson averaged a solid 14.6 his first three games but there's not a lot of value in a guy that couldn't play four full games. Taken between the 3rd and 4th round and expected to be a reliable RB2, he might not have completely shattered your team but it was a big hole to fill for fantasy owners.
Honorable Mentions
Booms
Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris were both considered, and Joe Mixon was a final cut after finally staying healthy and finishing as the RB4. Ultimately, I determined that they were all taken too early and didn't have the allure of being the RB1 like Taylor. AJ Dillon and James Conner were excellent candidates, but there were lower drafted running backs with better seasons that kept them from the list. I considered Justin Herbert since he finished as the QB2, but he wasn't taken low enough to be a full-out boom. Jaylen Waddle and Daulton Schultz were tough cuts, but there were too many names to also throw them on the list. Finally, Elijah Mitchell didn't make the list because he missed too many games due to injury.
Busts
Receivers like DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Brown, and Terry McLaurin were all up for busts, but Robinson and Jones were so bad that there was too big of a gap between those 3 and the names on the list. I wanted to put Darren Waller at first but he was relatively successful and played enough games to escape making the final cut. I would love to put Mike Davis on this list but he played consistently and wasn't as bad as you might think.
Reminder: These players are human beings. Refrain from harassing them because your imaginary football team lost.
Lou Orlando is the host and founder of the Sports Knight Podcast. Check out more of his work on the blog section of our website.
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