Mets vs Yankees: Opening Day Comparison
- Lou Orlando
- Apr 16, 2021
- 13 min read
It's a question Yankees and Mets fans have debated season after season after season. Who's better? After an electric offseason for the Mets, the question is more apt than ever. The Yankees have dominated New York baseball since 2017, but the Mets have finally put together a representable group that gives the Yanks a run for their money. We'll compare positions as well as overall lineups and pitching before making the final verdict.
Catcher: Gary Sanchez vs James McCann
Winner: McCann (NYM)
It's tough but McCann gets the edge because of recent success. At his best, Gary is the best offensive catcher in baseball. Unfortunately, we really haven't seen Gary's best since 2019. Since his explosive rookie year, Gary has had two productive seasons: 2017 and 2019. It's an odd year so maybe we get another All-Star season, but I can't in good conscience give him the nod after hitting .147 in 2020. James McCann has hit above .270 with an OPS+ above 100 in back to back years. His offense was pretty unremarkable until 2019 and he'll be 31 this season. Safe to say Gary's ceiling is infinitely higher but we'll take the safe road and back McCann who can boast 2 straight above average years.
First Base: Jay Bruce vs Pete Alonso
Winner: Alonso (NYM)
This would have been a very interesting conversation with Voit healthy. Voit vs Alonso is one of the most fun conversations you can have as a New York baseball fan. Unfortunately, Voit's knee injury leaves us with former Met Jay Bruce vs former rookie sensation Pete Alonso, and this one's not really a contest. Even with Alonso's sophomore slump, he's so far above anything Bruce can do at 34. Alonso had one of the best seasons a rookie can have and if he can capture even part of that same success, he'll be a very good player. The Yankees are just looking for Bruce to hold up the fort until Voit returns in May so even their expectations aren't high for him. Alonso wins this easily and even the most die hard Yankee fans won't fight you on it.
Second Base: DJ LeMahieu vs Jeff McNeil
Winner: DJ LeMahieu (NYY)
Try and fight it Mets fans. I'll give you an A for effort but you don't have a leg to stand on. Whether or not you think LeMahieu is overrated, there's no denying he's the best 2B in the sport. An elite contact hitter, DJ's hit .336 with a .922 OPS since joining the Yanks in 2019. There's no second baseman that even comes close during that 2 year stretch. For what it's worth, I consider Jeff McNeil to be the second best 2B in the MLB. He's an elite contact hitter in his own right and he's been one of the most reliable Mets since coming up in his rookie year. LeMahieu gets the edge because of his unparalleled success but Mets fans shouldn't feel terrible. McNeil's a stud that simply loses out to the best player at his position.
Shortstop: Gleyber Torres vs Francisco Lindor
Winner: Francisco Lindor (NYM)
The biggest acquisition of the Mets offseason, Lindor takes this one easily. Offensively, these two can actually go toe to toe. Lindor simply gets the edge there because he's been doing it for longer. Lindor was named an All-Star in 4 straight years and hit 30+ HRs 3 years in a row. Gleyber was excellent in his first 2 seasons, even hitting 38 HRs in 2019, before falling off in 2020. This was probably due to him being out of shape and there's no denying his offensive potential. For what it's worth, Lindor fell off in 2020 too, but we still give him the nod because of his established and consistent success. Usually, we don't weigh defense super heavily but here it's a major factor. Lindor is easily one of the top defensive shortstops in the MLB while Gleyber has struggled to make even routine plays since he's made the move from second to short. At the end of the day, most people consider Lindor a Top 3 SS while Gleyber typically slides in on the backend of Top 10 lists. There's a world where Gleyber becomes a Top 3 SS but for now, Lindor's got that cornered.
Third Base: Gio Urshela vs JD Davis
Winner: Gio Urshela (NYY)
Another tough positional battle, Urshela just beats out Davis. This is definitely one of those comparisons where the players are so close that you go the route of team loyalty and back your guy. Full transparency, I am a Yankee fan but I tried to stay unbiased when making this ruling. Both guys broke out in 2019 with fantastic years. Urshela beat Davis in BA, hitting .314 as opposed to Davis's .307. Davis can boast the slightly better power numbers, hitting 22 HRs to Urshela's 21 and finishing with an OPS 6 points higher than Gio. While the two were neck and neck in 2019, Urshela pulled away in 2020. He maintained a good batting average, hitting .298, and raised his OPS+ from 132 to 138. Davis's BA took a steep drop as it fell a full 60 points to .247. His OPS also dropped well over 100 points as he failed to recreate his power numbers. Urshela's consistency gives him the offensive edge and he's a plus defender at third base while Davis had a negative defensive WAR in his last 3 seasons.
Left Field: Clint Frazier vs Dominic Smith
Winner: Dominic Smith (NYM)
Dom Smith played 139 games between 2019 and 2020 which is pretty close to a full season these days. In that span, he's hit .299 with a .937 OPS and a 148 OPS+. Smith gained attention after finishing 13th in MVP voting in 2020. His .313 BA and .993 OPS might look like inflated numbers because of a shortened season, but his 2019 was strong enough offensively to make you think he can be that guy year in and year out. Clint can compare to anyone when it comes to batspeed but he can't compete with Dom's offensive production...yet. Clint has been challenged by injuries and limited playing time. Frazier suffered the most from a stacked Yankees outfield that's left him in a platoon role until this upcoming season. When he's gotten his opportunities, he's raked. He hit a HR in his first AB after being called up in 2020 and finished with a .905 OPS. He even improved his defense and was a Gold Glove finalist for RF. Clint can definitely hit but he just doesn't have the offensive reps to compete against Smith's ridiculous stats over the past 2 years.
Center Field: Aaron Hicks vs Brandon Nimmo
Winner: Brandon Nimmo (NYM)
This one should be fun. Both Hicks and Nimmo are masters at one thing: working walks and getting on base. Since 2017, Hicks has Nimmo beat in walks but not much else. Nimmo has the higher BA, OBP, OPS, and OPS+. Hicks has the better power and run-producing numbers but Nimmo is much more efficient in his opportunities. Hicks suffers from a declining batting average that is tainting his numbers. Hicks's increasing focus on power and the long ball is reflected in his BA dropping from .248 to .235 in 2019 and even further to .225 in 2020. Nimmo seems very content being the gritty lead off man that gets on base any way possible. Hicks is the better defender, but that can't save him.
Right Field: Aaron Judge vs Michael Conforto
Winner: Aaron Judge (NYY)
I think even Mets fans would admit Judge is one of the best players in the game when healthy. I know availability is the best ability and Conforto can definitely speak to that, playing in at least 90% of games over the past 3 seasons. I have to give Judge the edge because he's a freak of nature when he's right. A lot's been made out of his 2017 season, but Judge kept his offensive numbers up in the following 2 years. He hasn't been able to match his ridiculous 1.049 OPS but he did have a .919 and .921 OPS in 2018 and 2019 respectively. That's a career year for a lot of guys and for Judge, it was viewed as a setback. If he can stay healthy, he's basically a lock for MVP candidate year in and year out and it's worth noting he's a Top 2 defender in Right Field. Conforto was very good in 2020, hitting .322 with a .927 OPS. However, it's worth noting he's only recorded an OPS above .900 in one other season: 2017, where he was named an All-Star. Outside of those two years, he's been an above average offensive guy but one that didn't blow you away. I personally love Conforto. He's got one of the sweetest swings in baseball and I completely buy in that he'll keep up his success. Even then, I don't know if he can match the production of a healthy Aaron Judge.
DH/Primary Bench Bat: Giancarlo Stanton vs Jonathan Villar
Winner: Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)
Had the universal DH been ratified, we probably would have seen Alonso in the DH spot while Smith moved to first and Villar got reps in the OF. As it stands now, there's no Universal DH, but we can't compare these two teams without discussing Stanton and Villar. Stanton gets this nod pretty easily. His 2020 postseason showed you exactly what he's capable of. Yankee fans tend to forget he played in 158 games with 38 HRs in his first year with them. Injuries in the next 2 seasons have forced him to sit 181 out of a possible 222 games. He needs to stay healthy this year but we've seen flashes of his ridiculous power. Villar was an under the radar signing for the Mets. His ability to play infield and outfield will be very useful and he'll look to be one of the first bats off the bench for the Mets. He's a solid bat that brings a mixture of speed and contact to the table. Let's be real guys, he's nowhere near the offensive talent Stanton is but he is a respectable bat that could be very useful to the 2021 NY Mets.
Ace: Gerrit Cole vs Jacob DeGrom
Winner: Jacob DeGrom (NYM)
Guys let's be real here. It's DeGrom. No doubt about it. Gerrit Cole would probably admit that over the past 3 years, DeGrom has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball. When you compare their stats from 2018 to 2020, it's clear DeGrom has the upper hand. DeGrom's 2:10 ERA trumps Cole's 2.71 and his 190 ERA+ and 0.943 WHIP edge out Cole's 161 and 0.962. Cole does have the edge in Wins (no surprise there since the Mets are criminally bad at giving DeGrom run support) and Strikeouts but it's not enough to top DeGrom's 3 straight Cy Young caliber seasons. These two are the consensus Top 2 pitchers in the league right now so Yankee fans shouldn't feel too bad. Both New York squads have an ace they can be proud of.
Remaining Rotation: Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German vs Marcus Stroman, David Peterson, Taijuan Walker
Winner: Kluber, Taillon, Montgomery, German (NYY)
A healthy Mets rotation probably wins the battle for starting pitching depth. Unfortunately, injuries have already hit their rotation that had received so much hype this offseason. Injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard have forced the Mets to open the season with a 4 man rotation. The Yankees get the edge with a full rotation and further depth in Deivi Garcia and Michael King who aren't even in the rotation at the moment. The big question for the Yankees will be if their rotation depth can perform well enough to get wins. 3 of the 4 guys listed here did not play last season and Taillon and Kluber have essentially missed 2 straight seasons. Montgomery pitched a gem in Game 4 of the Wild Card Series and he'll be given a bigger role this season as one of the only starters coming off a healthy year. There's no denying their talent but they do have to shake off the rust. Stroman is an excellent pitcher and is extremely reliable as the number 2 guy in the rotation. After getting traded to the Blue Jays last year, Taijuan Walker pitched to a 1.37 ERA and if he can build off that, he'll be one of the Mets best signings this year. David Peterson showed real promise in his rookie year but he needs to show he can maintain that success through a full season. The Mets have the better talent here but the fact the Yankees can go 4 deep after their ace with 2-3 other guys in the system ready to start if necessary gives them the temporary edge. Once the Mets get healthy, this is a position battle they'll win easily.
Closer: Aroldis Chapman vs Edwin Diaz
Winner: Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
If you listen to the pod, you've heard Po talk about how good Edwin Diaz was last year. He's not wrong. Diaz pitched to a 1.79 ERA with a career high 249 ERA+. That being said, questions about his consistency still linger. Mets fans have yet to forget the 5.59 ERA Diaz posted in 2019 and it's worth noting Chapman's never posted an ERA above 3.60 and that was in his first full season in the bigs. We all know about Chapman. He's still hitting 102 with that fastball. He developed a slider a few years back, and his newest toy is a split fingered fastball. It sits around the low 90's and drops off the face of the earth. Chapman now has 3 legitimately great pitches to turn to and he continues to pitch at an elite level. His playoff struggles are well documented but he's still one of the most dominant and talented relievers in the game. Diaz has nasty stuff but he's not as overpowering as Chapman and it remains to be seen if he can return to elite closer status. For all you stat nerds out there, Chapman has a 2.40 ERA with a 183 ERA+ over the past 3 years. Safe to say he's still got it.
Set Up: Chad Green, Darren O'Day vs Trevor May, Miguel Castro
Winner: Green and O'Day (NYY)
The Mets made great strides to improve their bullpen this offseason. Their biggest one was the signing of former-Twin Trevor May. May has filthy breaking stuff that makes him a strikeout machine. He recorded 14.7 Strikeouts per 9 in 2020. Miguel Castro is a live arm that should fit well in the 7th inning role. The Mets set up guys are good but the Yankees are simply better. Chad Green is the best name in this group by a good bit. Green has one of the best fastballs in the game. He threw it 314 times last year with opponents hitting just .111 off of it. His slider and splitter haven't quite reached the elite level of his fastball but they're good enough. His curveball has the highest whiff rate out of his 3 pitches, sitting at 34%, so Green has proven he can get strikeouts with his offspeed as well. Darren O'Day was an underrated signing by the Yankees that should play a huge role in this bullpen. O'Day has only played 27 games over the past 2 seasons, but his ERA sits at 1.27 during that span. All 3 of his pitchers (4 seam, slider, and sinker) had an opposing batting average below .200. He relies on movement and funk as opposed to velocity and it's allowed him to pitch effectively into his twilight years. The main difference between May, Castro and Green, O'Day is established success. Green has been an elite reliever for several years while O'Day is a seasoned veteran that has always pitched at a very high level. May's last couple of years have been productive but neither May nor Castro has a resume that really blows you away.
Bullpen Depth: Justin Wilson, Jonathan Loasiga, Luis Cessa vs Aaron Loup, Jeurys Familia, Joey Lucchesi
Winner: Wilson, Loasiga, Cessa (NYY)
Look at that, the Yankees swept the bullpen section. What a surprise. One of the things the Yankees are best at is building a bullpen. Justin Wilson is a borderline setup man that has been very good his last few years. Jonathan Loasiga, or Johnny Lasagna as he is affectionately referred to by the guys at Talkin' Yanks, has elite stuff. He's never put it all together but he's shown flashes that lead you to believe he could be an elite late-inning guy. Cessa is the least exciting guy here but he can go multiple innings and is good enough for a back of the pen guy. Aaron Loup was the other main bullpen signing for the Mets. The sidewinder is a borderline set up guy that should be able to pitch to a productive mid 3 ERA. Beyond that, I don't really know about the bullpen depth here. Familia has been a failed signing since his return in 2019. If he can ever recapture his former success, it would do wonders for this bullpen. Finally, Lucchesi is a starter that finds himself in the pen as a multiple innings guy. He's been wildly inconsistent but he's still young so there's hope there. Still, it's no question here. Yanks have the better bullpen depth.
Overall Infield:
Winner: Mets
The overall infield battle is a lot more interesting with Luke Voit healthy. The Mets have the Yankees beat at 3 out of 5 positions to start the season. The big swing position is Catcher. If Gary balls out in 2021, he can easily overtake McCann who simply can't match the offensive potential of Sanchez. Once Voit returns, we could easily see the Yankees taking 4 out of the 5 infield positions. As it stands now, the Mets have one of the best infields in baseball and with the talent here, they could still stay on top even when Voit gets back.
Overall Outfield (Including DH)
Winner: Yankees
This was a 2-2 split in the individual battles. It's a tough decision but the Yankees overall outfield is simply better. Frazier, Hicks, and Judge plus Stanton is already great and when you can throw out Brett Gardner as a 5th man, you're talking about one of the deepest outfields in baseball. Dom Smith, Nimmo, and Conforto give the starting 3 a run for their money but they lack the depth and start power beyond Conforto to compete. Don't get me wrong it's very close. Conforto and Smith are elite hitters and Nimmo is a very talented offensive player in his own right. The simple fact is the combined offensive potential of Judge, Stanton, Frazier, Hicks, and Gardner is just so tough to beat.
Pitching
Winner: Yankees
I don't know if I expect the Yankees to win this once the Mets Starters get healthy but for now, the Yanks get the edge. Right now, the rotations are pretty comparable with the Yankees getting the edge in depth. The Mets do have more talent in their rotation all around so it basically evened out. That's when the bullpen comes into play. The Yanks pen gives them a massive advantage. Even without Zack Britton, the Yanks blow the Mets out of the water. Starting pitching is ultimately more important so expect a healthy Mets to win the overall pitching battle but that's for later. Let the Yankees pitching enjoy their fun in the Sun while they still can.
Lineup: Lemahieu, Judge, Hicks, Stanton, Torres, Sanchez, Urshela, Frazier, Bruce vs Nimmo, Lindor, Conforto, Alonso, Smith, McNeil, Davis, McCann, Pitcher/Villar
Winner: Yankees
The Yankees and Mets both have stacked lineups. The Mets probably get saved that they only have to go 8 deep thanks to the pitcher hitting. If we gave them a DH, it's pretty apparent their lineup falls off towards the last couple of spots. The Yankees can put together a pretty deep lineup even with the DH, although I'll admit the 9 hole is very lacking. Even if we compare just the Top 8, I think the Yanks just barely get the edge. It's certainly close but the Yankees established offensive success makes their lineup the more attractive one.
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